Commentary: For N.Y. Democrats, a warning for the election
July 2, 2022
With the smoke clearing from New York’s Democratic primary (Round One, at least), some interesting trends have emerged that have reshaped preconceived notions about modern elections in New York.
The results, however, include warning signs that smart candidates need to address.
Traditional trends hold
In the two previous Democratic primaries for governor, the establishment favorite/incumbent has held the line with roughly two-thirds of the vote, versus one-third for the far-left, anti-incumbent sentiment.
The good news for establishment Democrats, especially Gov. Kathy Hochul and her ticket, is that the trends held on Tuesday.
While some votes have yet to be reported, Hochul appears to have emerged from the primary with 66 percent of the vote. She faced two opponents: New York City Public Advocate Jumaane Williams got 19 percent by challenging her from the left, and U.S. Rep, Tom Suozzi’s moderate anti-crime campaign garnered him 13 percent.
This was certainly a solid victory.
However…
Turnout severely lags
Turnout compared to 2018 was anemic and a no-enthusiasm gap can’t be ignored.
According to the latest numbers, 14.5 percent of New York’s 5.9 million Democrats showed up to vote – more than 10 points less than the 25 percent turnout in 2018. Compare the 574,359 votes Hochul won (66 percent) with the 537,192 votes that Cynthia Nixon lost with (34.4 percent) in 2018 when she ran against former Gov. Andrew Cuomo.
This, combined with the challenges Democrats are facing nationally, should be setting off warning bells for the general election.
Record inflation, $5 a gallon gas, rising crime, stubborn supply chain issues, and President Joe Biden’s unpopularity are all dangerous headwinds. A recent Siena College Research Institute Poll found that 51 percent of New Yorkers (including 59 percent of independent voters who have yet to make their presence felt at the polls) said New York is on the “wrong track.”
This is an environment Republicans can seize upon and these are issues that will deeply resonate in Long Island, a traditional battleground that went deep crimson in last year’s local elections and also happens to be GOP gubernatorial nominee Lee Zeldin’s backyard.
Yes, the Supreme Court’s radical right-shift that overturned Roe, gutted New York’s gun laws, put prayer back in schools and made Swiss cheese out of Miranda rights could motivate disengaged Democrats and moderate independents to come out and vote Row A. However, I wouldn't take that for granted in a state where our laws insulate us against many of these assaults on our democracy but not the economic strains that we are experiencing nationally.
The End of the AOC Effect and the Limits of the Far Left
All day Tuesday, we could feel it. Every politico, committeeman and district leader, every political consultant, every campaign worker in a down-ballot race, every ward heeler was looking at that low, low turnout and bracing for the worst.
Ever since 2018, when a powerful congressman, U.S. Rep. Joe Crowley, was unexpectedly ousted by a socialist-leaning, 20-something bartender with little political experience, there has been one constant in New York politics: Low turnout equals bad news for down-ballot incumbents.
That has been true the last few cycles as many influential veteran pols in Congress, the state Senate and Assembly have been toppled by scrappy far-left insurgents backed by the Working Families Party and the Democratic Socialists of America. The lower the turnout, the better chance they had.
This year they - as well as said Old Guard giant-killer Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez – backed a slate of challengers to longtime entrenched Assembly incumbents, promising another progressive wave that would add to the chamber’s socialist bloc and place additional pressure on Speaker Carl Heastie.
This was one of the main media narratives going into Tuesday. The cameras certainly showed up, but there was no revolution to televise. With only a few exceptions, most incumbents held on.
When most people believe that crime is out of control and are feeling economic pain, perhaps defund-the-police and budget-busting platforms are hard sells.
Either way, it's a notable reversal that the establishment held in this low-information, low-attention, low-turnout environment.
The same can be said for the decisive victory by Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado (a relative newcomer to the statewide conversation) in his race against Anna Maria Archila, a stalwart member of the professional left whose campaign basket the DSA/WFP movement placed most of its eggs in.
Also notable is that 19 percent of the vote for Democratic gubernatorial contender Jumaane Williams, who was distracted by family matters for a significant part of the campaign. If the left campaigning hard gets 33 percent in governors’ races and an unfocused candidate gets 19, perhaps we have found the ceiling and the floor of the uber-progressive vote in New York.
The bottom line is that even with the existential threat from the extreme left in decline (for at least this cycle,) New York Democrats can’t rest on their laurels this November.
They need to motivate their base as they communicate how they are improving the lives of those New Yorkers who are either ready to vote for the other guy or stay home altogether.
With these primary results, they are on notice.
Rich Azzopardi is the founder and principal of Bulldog Strategies, a public affairs and crisis communications firm. He was previously senior adviser and director of communications to former Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo.